Analysis of Vehicular Traffic on the Tecate – El Sauzal Highway (2010 – 2022): A Statistical Approach to the Factors that Determine it

Abstract

The present study analyzed vehicular traffic on the Tecate–El Sauzal highway in Baja California, Mexico, during the period 2010–2022, with the aim of identifying patterns and variations in the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). The research highlighted the importance of understanding the influence of factors such as population growth, economic development, and the expansion of activities on traffic behavior in a key section for regional mobility. Statistical techniques, including correlation analysis, linear regression, and analysis of variance (ANOVA), were applied to evaluate the relationships between time and traffic volume, as well as to differentiate between sections and years. Public data from the Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation (SICT), corresponding to eight segments, were used to model trends and forecast future variations, ensuring validity through the analysis of statistical assumptions. The results obtained indicate a significant increase in traffic volume over the years, underscoring the importance of continuous monitoring of road infrastructure. Such monitoring is essential to ensure that the highway can withstand current traffic demands. Furthermore, the variance analysis revealed variations in traffic over time, suggesting the need to consider different usage patterns in highway management. These techniques allow for the interpretation and projection of trends for more efficient road management. Traffic volume on the Tecate–El Sauzal highway has grown significantly in recent years. The statistical methods used provide valuable insights for planning future interventions and ensuring sustainable mobility in the region.